The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Research Project, which is headquartered at the V-Dem Institute, Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg, Sweden produces the V-Dem database. The comprehensive database captures the state of democracy in countries around the world. The depth and breadth of the database makes it one of the richest sources of information for assessing the state of governance and especially how democracies around the world are doing. In recent years the V-Dem Institute, drawing on information from the database, has been producing a democracy report.
As I read through the 2024 report, released this month, I was quite struck by one of the worrying signs about the current state of democracy in West-African countries. This particularly analysis showed the political trajectories of the countries covered in the report over a fifty-year period and shifts that have occurred along the democracy spectrum.
Country trajectories fall into one of four main periods – a) closed autocracy; b) electoral autocracy; c) electoral democracy; and d) liberal democracy. Countries unable to fit into one of these periods are placed into either a) autocratic grey zone or b) democratic grey zone.
The more closely I looked at the analysis, the more urgent I felt the cry of the President of Ghana when he said to his ECOWAS colleagues on September 29, 2023, that “democracy in West Africa is in danger.”
Two Key Worrying Signs
First, across the political period prototypes described above, no country in West-Africa is classified as a liberal democracy, the highest form of democracy, per the most recent (2023) data point. Liberal democracy, as per the definition of the report, means that a country exhibits “judicial and legislative constraints on the executive along with the protection of civil liberties and equality before the law.” Which period currently characterizes countries in the region? Five are electoral democracies; three are in autocratic grey zones; four are electoral autocracies; and three are closed autocracies.
Second is the shift across prototypes in particular countries that signals the deterioration in the quality of democracy blowing across the region. The most revealing case is that of Ghana whose classification has seen shifts since its transition to democracy in 1992 – a) 1993 – electoral autocracy; b) 1994 to 1995 – autocratic grey zone; c) 1997 to 2002 – electoral democracy; d) 2003 to 2014 – liberal democracy; and e) 2015 to 2023 – electoral democracy.
Granted electoral democracies, still check off some of the most important aspects of democracy according to the report such as “multiparty elections for the executive being free and fair; satisfactory degrees of suffrage; freedom of expression; and freedom of association”. What makes Ghana stand out, in comparison to the other countries in the region seeing shifts, is this – it is the only country in West-Africa to have attained liberal democracy status and sustained it for a long period.
Beyond V-Dem’s Democracy Report
The Afrobarometer survey, Economic Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, Freedom House’s Freedom in the World Report, World Press Freedom Index, World Governance Indicators, and the Ibrahim Index of Africa Governance are some of the key good governance and democracy indices I regularly pay attention to. They provide valuable insights into the state of governance and democracy around the world including my regional (Sub-Sahara Africa) and country (Ghana) interests.
There’s a point of convergence and strong signals to be picked up about the quality of democracy and governance from these multiple sources in West-Africa. There is no denying that democracy is not enjoying its best days in the region. I must note that the global indices do show these are not the best days of democracy around the globe.
All is however not lost for West-Africa. I have argued repeatedly that citizens in countries across the region have generally made their peace with democracy. There is still strong preference for democracy with support for democracy at seventy percent (70%) according to Afrobarometer survey period 2021-2023. I reckon the variations in the level of support across countries.
In addition, there is still strong preference for a key democratic activity – the use of elections as the key method for choosing leaders. In survey period 2002-2003, eighty-one percent (81%) expressed support for elections. In survey period 2021-2023, seventy-eight percent (78%) still expressed support for elections. These are just two among other hopeful signals I use as my points of contention to drum home the idea that citizens have made their peace with democracy.
But even as I argue this point, I share these worrying signals of democratic deterioration as a way of keeping us alert to the real challenges that confront us. The challenges cannot remain unaddressed.
We must guard against any sense of complacency just because citizens have made their peace with democracy. That peace with democracy must be consistently safeguarded.